Improbable-Bait
0x03eb467ca3b8fc65c59e6f725984a8eada2a1af0
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$249.36
Total PnL
$-0.03
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
51 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.79
$0.51
- NO
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
51 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$50.16
$0.03
- NO
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026?
51 shares @ 98.7¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.83
$-0.51
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
51 shares @ 97.4¢·now 97.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.80
$0.13
- NO
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
51 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$48.78
$-0.18
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$48.96May 17, 12:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?$9.26May 16, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?$17.59May 16, 18:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$49.67May 15, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?$23.43May 13, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$50.18May 13, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026?$50.34May 12, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$50.70May 12, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$50.88May 10, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$11.40May 10, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$19.40May 10, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$14.90May 10, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$4.42May 10, 05:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$50.35May 7, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$50.65May 7, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$20.62May 7, 15:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $29.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 15:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".