Acrobatic-Fingerling
0x040633cde5c869b73afe9b4d3e126131aa3d0bfd
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$57.15
Total PnL
$0.15
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
20 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
15 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.02
$0.01
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
11 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.09
$0.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 6?
11 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$11.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 6?$11.00Jun 5, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$11.00Jun 5, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$15.00Jun 5, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$20.00Jun 5, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?$11.06Jun 5, 05:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?$23.15Jun 5, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$22.02Jun 5, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$22.00Apr 30, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?$11.00Apr 30, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?$23.01Apr 30, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in March?$12.13Apr 30, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA reach $280 in March?$22.11Apr 30, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$22.68Apr 30, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$22.66Mar 6, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA reach $280 in March?$22.00Mar 6, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $160 in March?$12.00Mar 6, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by March 31?$11.97Mar 6, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$21.82Mar 6, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$22.86Mar 6, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$21.81Feb 27, 14:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $20.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 10, 01:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 5, 05:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.