Shocked-Drama
0x0408c084014487e37e8287d642833e742fa23d68
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-990.10
Realised
$77.33
Win rate
44%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 14?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on March 18?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?
334 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 15?
334 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?
309 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January 1?
252 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on January 6?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 56°F or below on December 13?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Scott Seiver win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on March 18?
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 29?$1.61Jun 29, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29?$0.76Jun 29, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29?$20.00Jun 28, 21:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28?$0.03Jun 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28?$2.88Jun 28, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28?$3.24Jun 28, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28?$6.14Jun 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29?$48.05Jun 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29?$2.53Jun 28, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29?$1.98Jun 28, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29?$1.63Jun 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29?$1.80Jun 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29?$1.71Jun 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29?$3.95Jun 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29?$35.12Jun 28, 12:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 28?$14.25Jun 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 28?$14.84Jun 28, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 28?$3.31Jun 28, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 28?$4.57Jun 28, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 28?$1.81Jun 28, 12:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 17:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 08:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.