Weepy-Bidet
0x040ad8ef62b111e76b21576efd1a9c0807b5118d
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
151
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$55.66
Win rate
69%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 151- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
308 shares @ 92.5¢·now 92.3¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$284.37
$-0.60
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?
254 shares @ 91.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$253.16
$20.24
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
142 shares @ 75.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$104.16
$-2.13
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
100 shares @ 92.7¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$93.05
$0.35
- YES
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
140 shares @ 53.6¢·now 63.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$88.68
$13.57
- NO
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during remarks in Georgia?
93 shares @ 94.6¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$87.36
$-0.23
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
95 shares @ 89.5¢·now 82.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$78.56
$-6.46
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
250 shares @ 37.0¢·now 29.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$73.37
$-19.17
- NO
Will no MrBeast video be posted?
50 shares @ 93.1¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$47.48
$0.92
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video?
50 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$46.75
$0.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$92.70Jul 22, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$92.00Jul 22, 14:13 UTC
- MERGEIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$171.09Jul 22, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$5.19Jul 22, 13:53 UTC
- MERGEOver $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?$40.00Jul 22, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?$2.68Jul 22, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 22?$36.80Jul 22, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$7.10Jul 22, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 22?$37.16Jul 22, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$93.70Jul 22, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$93.80Jul 22, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?$38.24Jul 22, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" during remarks in Georgia?$87.59Jul 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 22?$0.02Jul 22, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 24?$17.80Jul 22, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$28.97Jul 22, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?$36.80Jul 22, 10:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$4.32Jul 22, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$191.66Jul 22, 10:33 UTC
- MERGEIran full airspace closure by July 24?$40.00Jul 22, 10:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $35.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 04:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 14:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.