Smart-Amazon
0x040b85a58113602289a53de6a1144e67198ddd51
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-673.20
Realised
$-35.49
Win rate
0%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
1021 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
596 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-140.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?
516 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 15?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
430 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-142.60
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
333 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
277 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
267 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.06Jul 28, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.06Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.41Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.06Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$2.25Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.01Jul 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.01Jul 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.47Jul 26, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$1.07Jul 26, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$0.59Jul 26, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.04Jul 26, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$2.15Jul 26, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.04Jul 26, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.07Jul 26, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$1.78Jul 22, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.07Jul 22, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.07Jul 22, 17:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
48 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 13:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.