Unknown-Toughguy
0x041b37970c099aac7e84fd879390ee1ca68fa3bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
118
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-506.51
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- BUSE
Argentina Open: Ignacio Buse vs Sebastian Baez
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
765 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
565 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
505 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Virginia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 20?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on February 13?
300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?$2.23Jun 28, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?$1.00Mar 30, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 30, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 30, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 30, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?$2.00Mar 30, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$2.00Mar 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $477.40Mar 28, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $5.48Mar 28, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $6.88Mar 28, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $4.59Mar 28, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $4.59Mar 28, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $52.06Mar 28, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $0.93Mar 28, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $9.71Mar 28, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?$3.43Mar 27, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 25, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $8.90Mar 23, 05:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$2.82Feb 15, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$1.00Feb 15, 00:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $13.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 12, 23:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 13:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.