Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.7K

Realised

$-76.30

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 26

NO
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9PM ET
1168 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025
$0.00
$-34.93
NO
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?
1087 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025
$0.00
$-173.99
NO
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?
1078 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025
$0.00
$-283.54
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 2PM ET
702 shares @ 18.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025
$0.00
$-127.99
NO
Will MrBeast raise $5m for TeamWater before end of stream?
655 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2025
$0.00
$-25.00
NO
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?
518 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025
$0.00
$-113.45
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
497 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 26, 2025
$0.00
$-407.61
YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
394 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-43.00
NO
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?
373 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025
$0.00
$-50.56

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry15 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk56 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 25
Avg trade size: $94.21
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 19, 13:32 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:55:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data