Arctic-Eponym
0x04567050f9274da5bbbbc2ccb06b70b58a995c6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
168
Open notional
$4.32
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-72.20
Win rate
4%
157 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 168- NO
Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?
5 shares @ 38.4¢·now 37.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.74
$-0.04
- YES
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2027?
12 shares @ 17.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.53
$-0.47
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 90.1¢·now 94.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1038 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
688 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-6.88
Recent activity
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 31?$8.82Jul 31, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 31?$3.08Jul 31, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLSC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 0.5$1.36Jul 31, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYSC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 0.5$3.09Jul 31, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 0.5$3.09Jul 31, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$12.78Jul 30, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$2.48Jul 30, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$3.10Jul 30, 07:28 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$2.37Jul 30, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 30, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$3.00Jul 30, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLSeattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$0.81Jul 30, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLFluminense FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5$1.32Jul 30, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluminense FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5$3.13Jul 30, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?$3.84Jul 30, 02:06 UTC
- TRADESELLEC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 2.5$0.02Jul 30, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 2.5$3.12Jul 30, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 2.5$3.12Jul 30, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?$3.78Jul 30, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$3.09Jul 30, 00:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 157 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
157 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 23:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 157 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.