Arctic-Eponym
0x04567050f9274da5bbbbc2ccb06b70b58a995c6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$21.39
Total PnL
$-755.88
Realised
$-32.20
Win rate
26%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- YES
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2027?
12 shares @ 17.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$5.94
$3.94
- NO
Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?
7 shares @ 61.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$4.24
$0.23
- YES
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?
3 shares @ 61.5¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.19
$0.19
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
30 shares @ 6.7¢·now 6.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.85
$-0.15
- DATABRICKS
Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31?
6 shares @ 35.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.74
$-0.26
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.21
$0.21
- NO
Will anyone say "Sorry" during House of the Dragon E3 S3?
3 shares @ 67.5¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$1.19
$-0.80
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 90.1¢·now 91.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tribute to America Rally?
7 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLMilwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$1.43Jul 5, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$2.04Jul 5, 03:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kyle Schwarber hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?$2.83Jul 5, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?$2.03Jul 5, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLTampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros$1.43Jul 5, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyle Schwarber hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?$2.05Jul 5, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMChicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians$5.88Jul 5, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyle Schwarber hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?$2.05Jul 5, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during Tribute to America Rally?$2.06Jul 5, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?$2.03Jul 5, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?$2.03Jul 5, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?$2.03Jul 5, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians$2.04Jul 5, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBaltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds$1.52Jul 5, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Underdog" during the Paraguay vs France FIFA World Cup Match?$0.02Jul 5, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?$2.00Jul 4, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros$2.04Jul 4, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds$2.04Jul 4, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYMinnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees$2.04Jul 4, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMinnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees$1.14Jul 4, 19:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
31 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 11:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 03:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.