Expensive-Arch
0x04876e20c04d8a19b0f8248f25ac1c97ffd57b45
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.77
Total PnL
$-12.23
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
9 shares @ 22.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.77
$-0.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3?
491 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?
161 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
66 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump post "I love King" or "I love the King" on Truth Social this week?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4?
24 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on May 3?$0.00May 7, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?$0.00May 4, 17:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3?$0.00May 4, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 3?$0.00May 4, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?$0.00May 4, 17:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3?$0.00May 4, 17:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 3?$0.00May 4, 17:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$0.00May 3, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$0.00May 3, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$5.19May 3, 10:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$4.08May 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.20May 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.20May 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 3?$1.05May 3, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3?$1.05May 3, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?$1.05May 3, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4?$1.05May 3, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3?$1.05May 3, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 3?$1.05May 3, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3?$1.05May 3, 10:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 3, 09:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 7, 21:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.