Apprehensive-Account
0x04a62eb33ee56605dc1f6ea340eb717c8504c295
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$20.77
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$55.97
Win rate
82%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.95
$0.95
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.02
$0.02
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
8 shares @ 60.8¢·now 58.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.80
$-0.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
555 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-59.85
- ETCHEVERRY
Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Tomas Etcheverry
350 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 12, 2025$0.00
$-237.95
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
234 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
147 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
142 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- NO
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?
135 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$64.94Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $11.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.