Substantial-Close
0x04b41aa197ce21b30827aaad08ca8cd4623c65ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$545.81
Total PnL
$-487.60
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
554 shares @ 88.4¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$545.81
$55.82
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday?
2023 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?
1111 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2025$0.00
$-101.00
- YES
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
1000 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?
841 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?
365 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 4?
291 shares @ 68.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
171 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-37.42
- YES
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?
91 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$489.99Oct 2, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?$10.00Jul 10, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 4?$200.00Jul 3, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$37.42Jul 3, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?$5.00Jun 24, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?$5.00Jun 23, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?$57.39Jun 19, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire by Friday? $10.00Jun 19, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?$15.00Jun 19, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$120.00Jun 18, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire by Friday? $50.00Jun 18, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?$10.00Jun 18, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?$5.00Jun 18, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?$86.00Jun 18, 13:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $78.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 13:34 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 2, 17:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".