Alarmed-Tobacco
0x04c13487ec748e5fbc8510f622a3b784408366b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$94.49
Total PnL
$-776.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 31.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.49
$1.50
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1?
8000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1?
3054 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-52.00
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
1346 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-12?
832 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-540.96
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?
504 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
139 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?
134 shares @ 23.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-12?$540.96Jan 12, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $23.00Jan 12, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?$4.10Jan 12, 15:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-10?$65.46Jan 12, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FC Lorient win on 2026-01-10?$35.89Jan 10, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Lorient win on 2026-01-10?$53.50Jan 10, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Lorient win on 2026-01-10?$5.00Jan 10, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-10?$0.34Jan 10, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-10?$25.90Jan 10, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-10?$22.20Jan 10, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: HMBLE vs P11 Esports (BO1)$565.45Jan 9, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: HMBLE vs P11 Esports (BO1)$557.59Jan 9, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: HMBLE vs P11 Esports (BO1)$557.58Jan 9, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: HMBLE vs P11 Esports (BO1)$463.53Jan 9, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$35.76Jan 8, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$16.21Jan 8, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: Colossal Gaming vs HMBLE (BO1)$65.21Jan 8, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Colossal Gaming vs HMBLE (BO1)$50.00Jan 8, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: Colossal Gaming vs HMBLE (BO1)$33.63Jan 8, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Colossal Gaming vs HMBLE (BO1)$50.00Jan 8, 20:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $130.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 31, 02:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 12, 21:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.