Spotted-Retrospectivity
0x04c30228da9e4346a2dd4e958499dfb81aef9a7c
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$576.02
Total PnL
$12.29
Realised
$4.38
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
136 shares @ 73.8¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.49
$0.24
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
89 shares @ 90.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$78.55
$-1.45
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
67 shares @ 89.4¢·now 85.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$57.36
$-2.64
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
60 shares @ 74.7¢·now 93.3¢·exp May 5, 2026$56.20
$11.20
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
54 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$49.73
$-0.27
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 68.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$34.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
34 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$30.34
$0.34
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
35 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.18
$0.18
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
23 shares @ 88.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$21.36
$1.36
- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$20.88
$0.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$5.0038m ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by May 31?$1.604h ago
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$30.005h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?$5.005h ago
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?$5.045h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$20.165h ago
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$10.005h ago
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$5.005h ago
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$5.005h ago
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$50.005h ago
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$10.006h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by May 31?$8.107h ago
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$33.018h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$5.048h ago
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$5.008h ago
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$10.009h ago
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?$20.359h ago
- REDEEMIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?$30.839h ago
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$234.679h ago
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$10.001d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $21.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 4d ago
- Last active
- 38m ago
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".