Puzzled-Raiment
0x04e41aef421da376a5517f820fe5ba3995d23d99
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-665.59
Realised
$-203.08
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 7?
273 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.32
- UP
Solana Up or Down on January 10?
273 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.63
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 3?
270 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 12?
270 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on January 10?
268 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.29
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 14?
267 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 8?
266 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 3?
265 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.77
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14?
249 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 17?
245 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on August 5?$2.57Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 27?$1.22Jul 26, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.00 on July 15?$3.36Jul 14, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?$1.95May 22, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?$86.58May 17, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3?$22.64May 17, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 6?$74.78May 11, 05:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 12?$0.00Apr 30, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$1.52Apr 19, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 11?$0.00Apr 19, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 6?$0.00Apr 13, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 12?$2.48Apr 12, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 6?$73.06Apr 6, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 6?$1.86Apr 6, 12:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 5?$75.88Apr 6, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 5?$0.31Apr 5, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 5?$73.52Apr 5, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29?$83.19Apr 5, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3?$19.47Apr 3, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 11?$0.00Apr 3, 02:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $22.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 24, 00:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.