0x05106c0843279565c9ba062c46f9ae8c809210c4
0x05106c0843279565c9ba062c46f9ae8c809210c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$37.61
Total PnL
$-324.72
Realised
$-27.37
Win rate
0%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
2944 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$36.80
$-13.20
- YES
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
49 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.53
$-0.47
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$0.28
$-0.72
- YES
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 England?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.99
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 16?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- ARGENTINA
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
4314 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?
4167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3250 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- MOROCCO
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)
1915 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.09Aug 10, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$54.46Aug 10, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$6.00Jul 28, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$6.62Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$6.30Jul 28, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.36Jul 27, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$0.84Jul 26, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$3.07Jul 26, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$2.69Jul 26, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$5.35Jul 26, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$1.49Jul 26, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$4.10Jul 26, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$1.07Jul 26, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$10.62Jul 26, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$11.72Jul 26, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$14.01Jul 26, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$0.98Jul 26, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$1.09Jul 26, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$12.94Jul 26, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$10.60Jul 26, 15:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $10.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 20:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 22:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.