Virtuous-Credibility
0x0527c28985afe239a351634fe4996dcd73d120b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$84.31
Total PnL
$-4.2K
Realised
$91.88
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
1000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.50
$18.00
- YES
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
906 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.51
$2.51
- YES
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
917 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.12
$1.13
- YES
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
739 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.07
$-1.43
- YES
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
969 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.39
$1.39
- YES
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
653 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.61
$-1.39
- YES
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1254 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.88
$-2.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?$6.30Jul 23, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$3.00Jul 22, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$2.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$2.00Jul 19, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.00Jul 19, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$3.00Jul 19, 20:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 13:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.