Improbable-Folk
0x05520404b086c1ba4f94cc54e547de3fee845ca4
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$73.04
Total PnL
$23.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
60 shares @ 16.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$59.88
$49.88
- YES
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$13.16
$3.16
- YES
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?
215 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
21 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $10.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 14:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.