Knobby-Larder
0x057ac4ddef0b43348b5a4be31955e82df5733bac
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
121
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-256.5K
Realised
$-12.4K
Win rate
24%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 121- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
2400 shares @ 96.1¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.3K
$42.84
- NO
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-12-05?
40054 shares @ 36.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-14.6K
- YES
Trump out as President in 2025?
38672 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.3K
- NO
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?
31761 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-9.6K
- CAVALIERS
Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers
27868 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-9.8K
- NO
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-05?
24652 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-13.3K
- NO
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-12-03?
20743 shares @ 58.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-12.1K
- NO
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-06?
17134 shares @ 26.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-4.5K
- NO
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-06?
17097 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-4.9K
- NO
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?
16020 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-3.5K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.21Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
24% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
55 closed markets, 24% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.