Wry-Conductor
0x05a4bae4fc7d24308111c39d643cf6cb2dc427cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.9K
Realised
$-3.1K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?
45665 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-590.17
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
12957 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-348.97
- NO
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
10076 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?
10000 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-161.07
- YES
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election?
8081 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
7071 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-600.00
- YES
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?
6782 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-239.98
- YES
Will Cooper Kupp win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
4000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-35.28
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?
3251 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?
3030 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?$43.94Feb 20, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?$60.00Feb 18, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?$40.00Feb 18, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?$50.00Feb 17, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?$100.00Feb 17, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January?$75.00Feb 17, 21:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum be the top performing crypto for the week of February 9?$100.00Feb 17, 21:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?$194.87Feb 12, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?$174.88Feb 12, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$198.20Feb 12, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February?$290.40Feb 12, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?$50.00Feb 12, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February?$100.00Feb 11, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?$100.00Feb 11, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February?$100.00Feb 11, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?$200.00Feb 11, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?$161.08Feb 10, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?$157.21Feb 10, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$32.00Feb 10, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?$133.00Feb 10, 20:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $205.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 11:25 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 20, 10:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.