Frozen-Beanstalk
0x05da758297b21d92f6ef9e87f5a051f72a34899c
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$4.39
Total PnL
$-3.61
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.38
$0.38
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$0.20
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.16
$0.16
- YES
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
18 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?$1.04May 20, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$1.03May 20, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?$1.01May 20, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$1.01May 20, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?$1.29Apr 18, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$1.00Apr 18, 17:11 UTC
- REDEEMXi Jinping out in 2025?$1.01Jan 1, 13:48 UTC
- REDEEMAnother critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?$1.11Jan 1, 13:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? $1.37Jan 1, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?$1.00Jan 1, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.00Dec 16, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? $1.00Dec 16, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?$1.00Dec 16, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?$1.00Dec 16, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?$1.00Dec 9, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out in 2025?$1.00Dec 9, 13:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 9, 13:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 20, 12:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.