Weekly-Tank
0x0629ad7753ba6a7bf22dc816df228e92364c501d
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$78.30
Total PnL
$-247.71
Realised
$-17.47
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$9.50
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.98
$2.48
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 13?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$4.92
$0.03
- NO
Will Democrats win fewer than 8 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.87
$-0.08
- NO
Will Julia Arcelia Olguín Serna win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?
5 shares @ 97.8¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$4.84
$-0.05
- NO
Will José Narro Céspedes win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$4.78
$-0.03
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.72
$-0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.67
$-0.03
- NO
Will Geovanna Bañuelos de la Torre win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?
5 shares @ 98.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$4.67
$-0.27
- NO
Will Democrats win 11 or more House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.60
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Democrats win 11 or more House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?$4.71Aug 12, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Democrats win fewer than 8 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?$4.95Aug 12, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?$1.64Aug 12, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 12?$2.11Aug 12, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?$4.81Aug 12, 09:28 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Paris on August 12?$15.00Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 12?$4.95Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 12?$3.75Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?$1.96Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 12?$4.33Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 12?$3.60Aug 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?$4.71Aug 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 12?$3.45Aug 12, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on August 12?$3.45Aug 12, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on August 12?$4.90Aug 12, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 13?$2.91Aug 12, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 13?$4.90Aug 12, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 13?$0.50Aug 12, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 13?$4.09Aug 12, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 12?$4.45Aug 12, 06:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 04:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 09:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.