Watery-Awareness
0x068465387e80d9006021d41220a7ac63277adcf3
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
193
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-182.40
Realised
$-6.20
Win rate
33%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- YES
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Memphis Roundtable?
113 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 25+ times during Memphis Roundtable?
67 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 4?
67 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 5?
64 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 3?
49 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on April 2?
47 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
45 shares @ 43.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-19.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 6?
44 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 3?
41 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 5?
40 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.21Jun 23, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 3?$1.00Jun 23, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.26Jun 23, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$7.04Jun 23, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.10Jun 23, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.81Jun 23, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.19Jun 23, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.16Jun 23, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.02Jun 23, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$27.20Jun 23, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.23Jun 23, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$13.89Jun 23, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.22Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$8.62Jun 23, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.15Jun 23, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Clippers$0.00Apr 8, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Clippers$0.00Apr 8, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Clippers$0.00Apr 8, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Clippers$3.32Apr 8, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on April 6?$0.75Apr 5, 10:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
60 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 09:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.