Candid-Underwire
0x06d3c16209711591aa33da5e5ff35935c95bd12b
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-0.28
Win rate
13%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 18?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 28 2025?
200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-0.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
159 shares @ 51.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-81.58
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 18?
150 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.45
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?
100 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-0.47
- YES
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?
80 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
35 shares @ 58.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-20.52
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
34 shares @ 78.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-26.88
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
32 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-21.43
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
32 shares @ 64.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-20.67
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$4.05Aug 18, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$4.00Aug 18, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$4.20Aug 18, 02:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$4.20Aug 18, 01:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$4.20Aug 18, 00:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.16Aug 18, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$5.00Aug 18, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$4.20Aug 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$3.20Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$10.00Aug 17, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$4.20Aug 17, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$3.70Aug 17, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$4.00Aug 17, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$4.15Aug 17, 22:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
39 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $3.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 18:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 03:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.