Knotty-Men
0x075250415e4d110df29873e471eab6a316d1a2fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$2.47
Total PnL
$-11.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.75
$0.75
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 25.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.00Jan 17, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.00Jan 17, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?$1.00Jan 17, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$1.00Jan 17, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out in 2025?$1.00Jan 1, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 1, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?$1.00Jan 1, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election?$1.03Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$1.03Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?$1.04Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.08Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?$1.14Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.19Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?$1.37Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?$2.11Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?$1.00Dec 28, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?$1.00Dec 28, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$1.00Oct 25, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Bank" 50+ times during the FED board meeting on October 24?$1.00Oct 25, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$1.00Oct 25, 02:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 24, 02:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 17, 14:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".