Flimsy-Trellis
0x0756b96bea2cfbeae3ff37061279d547ee96d711
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-8.3K
Realised
$370.54
Win rate
81%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5571 shares @ 29.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.1K
$-504.16
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
1175 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-35.24
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
1100 shares @ 84.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-932.28
- NO
US bank failure by March 31?
1061 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-785.00
- YES
Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?
1038 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
846 shares @ 56.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-479.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
729 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-92.75
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
600 shares @ 47.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-285.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
600 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-287.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
591 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-84.74
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 11, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.54Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.71Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$5.81Jul 6, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$104.06Jul 6, 14:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $94.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.