Direct-Cinnamon
0x07718899d0adf45d0b34f7cebd38a595fa486d8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-79.72
Realised
$-4.39
Win rate
5%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?
1560 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or below on July 1?
600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 1?
400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 10?
260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 12?
260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C or higher on July 10?
260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 10?
260 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 10?
216 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?
211 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 1?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 15?$0.70Jul 13, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 15?$0.70Jul 13, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.51Jul 13, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.70Jul 13, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 15?$0.50Jul 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.37Jul 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.09Jul 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.28Jul 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.32Jul 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?$0.25Jul 13, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 14?$0.46Jul 12, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 14?$0.24Jul 12, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?$0.14Jul 12, 14:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 14:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 08:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.