Whopping-Justification
0x0799699b186294059b7a0033d115e212d8e27298
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$2.13
Total PnL
$-44.30
Realised
$-2.45
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
2 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.13
$0.68
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
26 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- TYLOO
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - GangKui Cup Playoffs
6 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
5 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.75
- MINLATE
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group Stage
5 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
5 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.50Jul 31, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.56Jul 31, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.50Jul 31, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.16Jul 31, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.49Jul 31, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$1.87Jul 30, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$1.50Jul 30, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.75Jul 30, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.50Jul 30, 06:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.69Jul 29, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.50Jul 29, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.85Jul 29, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.50Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$1.63Jun 1, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.87May 31, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$1.50May 31, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.30May 29, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.49May 29, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.06Apr 29, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLShymkent 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej Nedic$1.14Apr 29, 09:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 04:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 09:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.