0x079cceefee8346c022a1581362b613c54e8f363f
0x079cceefee8346c022a1581362b613c54e8f363f
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$148.89
Total PnL
$-6.99
Realised
$1.10
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?
37 shares @ 32.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$18.55
$6.68
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
23 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.63
$-0.11
- NO
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%?
10 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$10.44
$0.02
- YES
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
65 shares @ 12.3¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.12
$2.06
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
49 shares @ 23.7¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.62
$-2.08
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
52 shares @ 23.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.54
$-2.32
- NO
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 76.8¢·now 78.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$8.32
$0.12
- YES
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?
13 shares @ 93.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.78
$-4.18
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?
8 shares @ 87.2¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$7.70
$0.52
- YES
Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?
9 shares @ 76.3¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$6.22
$-1.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$1.67Aug 21, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$3.40Aug 21, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$1.69Aug 21, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$0.41Aug 21, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$6.96Aug 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$4.65Aug 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?$0.34Aug 21, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?$2.37Aug 21, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?$1.10Aug 21, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?$1.10Aug 21, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$0.19Aug 21, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$5.45Aug 21, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?$0.88Aug 21, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?$1.09Aug 21, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?$1.09Aug 21, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?$5.21Aug 21, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?$1.09Aug 21, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?$7.04Aug 21, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wieslawa Derlatka win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?$1.10Aug 21, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?$1.09Aug 21, 05:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 05:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 23:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.