Reflecting-Man-Charlatan
0x07f1a7be137c6e7f8391a80a29c667fa8dfd73e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$14.72
Total PnL
$-189.82
Realised
$21.65
Win rate
72%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 28?
60 shares @ 3.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$2.73
$0.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 29?
65 shares @ 1.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$2.21
$1.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 28?
60 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$2.12
$0.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 28?
76 shares @ 2.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$1.55
$0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 28?
107 shares @ 2.5¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$1.44
$-1.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 28?
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$1.24
$0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29?
60 shares @ 1.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$1.23
$0.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 28?
75 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$1.16
$-0.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 28?
65 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.74
$-0.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 28?
65 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.26
$-0.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28?$0.18Jun 27, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 29?$0.06Jun 27, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 29?$0.24Jun 27, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 27?$0.06Jun 27, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?$0.42Jun 27, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?$0.25Jun 27, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 28?$0.60Jun 27, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 28?$0.06Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28?$0.32Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27?$0.14Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27?$0.23Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?$0.08Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?$0.01Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27?$0.09Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 27?$0.10Jun 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?$0.13Jun 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?$0.19Jun 27, 08:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28?$0.21Jun 27, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28?$0.17Jun 27, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?$0.04Jun 27, 08:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
60 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 08:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 08:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.