Excellent-Hazelnut
0x07f35fd0dd84ae0c3734b73117c425c4ca42093e
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$53.15
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
937 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.57
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
291 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-157.53
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
284 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-147.66
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
187 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-86.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
186 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-37.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
176 shares @ 55.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-97.77
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
161 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-88.62
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
140 shares @ 61.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-85.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
130 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-68.91
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
105 shares @ 29.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-30.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jul 21, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jul 14, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?$2.07Jul 11, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 10, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$2.05Jul 4, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$2.00Jul 2, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?$2.01Jul 1, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$9.61Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.11Jun 30, 19:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.17Jun 30, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?$2.08Jun 27, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?$2.00Jun 26, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$2.00Jun 24, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.01Jun 23, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?$3.03Jun 17, 09:48 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?$4.05Jun 17, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.00Jun 17, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.00Jun 15, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?$3.00Jun 11, 14:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June?$2.03Jun 9, 02:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 08:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 02:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.