Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.0K

Realised

$-48.75

Win rate

65 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 65

YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
1756 shares @ 56.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-988.78
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17?
1090 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-9.81
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
1006 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-26.44
YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
594 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-141.78
YES
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
405 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-153.94
YES
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
186 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-78.26
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
183 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-9.14
YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
165 shares @ 22.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-37.06
YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?
140 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-21.06
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11AM ET
98 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-14.70

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$8.11Jul 21, 21:13 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 21, 4PM ET$9.09Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 4PM ET$7.92Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 4PM ET$9.96Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$7.84Jul 21, 15:00 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$10.21Jul 21, 13:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$4.06Jul 21, 13:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$10.15Jul 21, 13:02 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$9.74Jul 21, 12:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$10.05Jul 21, 12:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$3.13Jul 21, 12:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$18.53Jul 21, 12:38 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$9.86Jul 21, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$9.78Jul 21, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$9.81Jul 21, 10:13 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$19.69Jul 21, 09:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$9.80Jul 21, 09:34 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 20, 6PM ET$2.93Jul 20, 22:39 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$2.95Jul 20, 22:38 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 65 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

65 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $8.08
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 20, 16:24 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 21:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 65 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:30:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data