Demanding-Tortoise
0x08173da1e582a307351d4ebcf0a0a7ef3bb4d303
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-102.73
Realised
$15.88
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5AM ET
528 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12PM ET
343 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4PM ET
59 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8PM ET
54 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9PM ET
27 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9AM ET
19 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6AM ET
17 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 4?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
12 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$0.42Jul 11, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.05Jul 11, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$1.22Jul 11, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$1.03Jul 11, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.07Jul 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 11, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 10?$1.04Jul 10, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 10?$4.13Jul 10, 05:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9?$4.11Jul 9, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9?$3.04Jul 9, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 9?$2.46Jul 9, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$1.05Jul 8, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$1.15Jul 8, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$1.05Jul 8, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.16Jul 8, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 8, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 9?$5.20Jul 8, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?$5.91Jul 8, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?$6.16Jul 8, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?$6.52Jul 8, 02:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 16:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 21:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.