Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.6K

Realised

$-47.41

Win rate

53 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 69

YES
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?
583 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-35.00
YES
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
559 shares @ 35.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
OVER
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5
508 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-246.30
OVER
AZ vs. ADO Den Haag: O/U 3.5
396 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026
$0.00
$-166.31
YES
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 England?
386 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-27.00
YES
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain?
386 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-27.00
YES
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 England?
380 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-38.00
YES
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?
375 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-45.00
OVER
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5
366 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-168.32
OVER
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
310 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-151.90

Recent activity

TRADEBUYCF América vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$9.61Aug 10, 02:05 UTC
TRADEBUYCF América vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$46.66Aug 10, 02:05 UTC
TRADESELLAustin FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 3.5$76.35Aug 10, 02:02 UTC
TRADEBUYAustin FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 3.5$36.81Aug 10, 00:30 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: CR Flamengo 2 - 0 EC Vitória?$37.01Aug 10, 00:28 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: CR Flamengo 2 - 0 EC Vitória?$5.85Aug 9, 21:49 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)$93.06Aug 9, 21:48 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-09?$77.99Aug 9, 21:14 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)$94.00Aug 9, 19:13 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 Académico de Viseu FC?$15.69Aug 9, 18:59 UTC
REDEEMWill CF Monterrey win on 2026-08-08?$200.00Aug 9, 04:51 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Deportivo Toluca FC 2 - 1 Los Angeles FC?$15.68Aug 9, 02:56 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Deportivo Toluca FC 1 - 2 Los Angeles FC?$16.72Aug 9, 02:55 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$50.58Aug 9, 02:55 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$2.00Aug 9, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$3.33Aug 9, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$0.93Aug 9, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$1.40Aug 9, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$8.00Aug 9, 02:53 UTC
TRADEBUYDeportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5$0.70Aug 9, 02:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 53 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

53 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity64 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry62 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $39.83
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 27, 02:28 UTC
Last active: Aug 10, 02:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 53 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 07:59:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data