Royal-Takeout
0x0857398f00ce54a14f92a68f1e17e73cf971dc72
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$20.75
Total PnL
$-658.89
Realised
$23.01
Win rate
75%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 22?
7 shares @ 43.3¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$3.50
$0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 22?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$3.19
$0.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?
7 shares @ 44.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$3.17
$0.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?
7 shares @ 45.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 22?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.63
$0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?
6 shares @ 52.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 22?
8 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?
7 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?$3.08Jul 22, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?$0.13Jul 22, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?$3.09Jul 22, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 22?$4.88Jul 22, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 22?$2.56Jul 22, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?$4.85Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 22?$3.09Jul 22, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?$4.58Jul 22, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?$3.07Jul 22, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?$6.69Jul 22, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?$3.08Jul 22, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?$6.31Jul 22, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?$2.46Jul 22, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 22?$3.09Jul 22, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 22?$2.56Jul 22, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 22?$6.18Jul 22, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?$3.08Jul 22, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?$3.09Jul 22, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?$3.09Jul 21, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 21?$0.24Jul 21, 23:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 22:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 18:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.