Reasonable-Lady
0x08b40e81f0770dca4cdfe970668c0f7d7268624e
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$8.11
Total PnL
$-19.25
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
4400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.20
$-2.20
- YES
Will Respublica win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
366 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$1.28
$-0.85
- YES
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.25
$-8.75
- YES
Will Baytaq win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
272 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$1.22
$-0.95
- YES
Will JSDP win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
312 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$0.94
$-1.25
- YES
Will QHP win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
327 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.2¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$0.65
$-1.46
- YES
Will Auyl win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
216 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.2¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$0.43
$-1.73
- YES
Will Aq Jol win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
61 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.2¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$0.12
$-0.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 24?
23 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.01
$-1.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 24?$1.15Jul 24, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$0.00Jul 23, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?$0.00Jul 23, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$0.00Jul 23, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.00Jul 23, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 22?$0.00Jul 23, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 22?$0.00Jul 23, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.69Jul 22, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.01Jul 22, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.30Jul 22, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.16Jul 22, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$3.18Jul 22, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$9.99Jul 22, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$10.00Jul 22, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?$9.80Jul 22, 20:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $5.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 10:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 05:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.