Evergreen-Grill
0x08ceded238219b4b3fff04e00a4778d839d4f301
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
112
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$489.58
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
68%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 112- NO
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
811 shares @ 22.2¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$656.96
$476.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?
295 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$295.26
$2.26
- NO
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?
288 shares @ 32.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$185.63
$92.08
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
456 shares @ 31.2¢·now 32.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.76
$3.82
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
175 shares @ 67.9¢·now 69.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$120.76
$2.01
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
188 shares @ 38.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$102.48
$31.03
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $55B?
140 shares @ 36.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$93.54
$43.28
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
300 shares @ 31.5¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$92.88
$-1.65
- NO
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
93 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$90.98
$0.42
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
957 shares @ 15.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.94
$-57.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$6.01Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$243.84Jul 28, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$240.56Jul 28, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$31.00Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 28?$213.93Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$87.49Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$141.86Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$145.97Jul 28, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$4.96Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.20Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.04Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.31Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.21Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.04Jul 28, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$0.24Jul 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$1.89Jul 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$10.24Jul 28, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$3.30Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
73 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $28.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.