Clumsy-Patriarch
0x08ef9bb12e694e305d5e0cf1761874ce902ae466
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
188
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$199.08
Win rate
52%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 188- NO
Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
106 shares @ 92.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$93.33
$-4.19
- NO
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
105 shares @ 87.8¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$75.42
$-17.19
- NO
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
89 shares @ 76.1¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$59.31
$-8.07
- NO
Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$46.75
$1.75
- YES
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?
50 shares @ 92.1¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$46.50
$0.45
- NO
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
45 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.65
$1.60
- NO
Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$40.25
$-1.25
- NO
Will Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
40 shares @ 91.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.00
$0.28
- NO
Will Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
42 shares @ 88.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.70
$-1.26
- NO
Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
40 shares @ 89.5¢·now 83.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.56
$-2.24
Recent activity
- REWARD$6.14Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?$46.05Aug 17, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYColson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 1.5$0.50Aug 17, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$0.45Aug 17, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$5.60Aug 17, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$17.50Aug 17, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$2.43Aug 17, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.12Aug 17, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$34.50Aug 17, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$41.50Aug 17, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "Camera" during Big Brother E20?$20.00Aug 17, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E20?$20.00Aug 17, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?$45.00Aug 17, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$15.58Aug 17, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?$14.00Aug 17, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$0.45Aug 17, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$0.56Aug 17, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$1.36Aug 17, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$3.37Aug 17, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraden Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 1.5$0.50Aug 17, 09:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $6.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 01:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.