Robust-Sheath-Iceberg
0x094a1fa47971a8151c0430cc7dc35cda03aea9d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.21
Total PnL
$-183.34
Realised
$153.44
Win rate
72%
131 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 11?
70 shares @ 1.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$1.56
$0.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 11?
95 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.71
$0.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 10?
532 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.27
$-1.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 10?
52 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.23
$-4.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 10?
357 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.18
$-0.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 10?
277 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.14
$-5.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 10?
132 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.07
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 10?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.05
$-0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 13?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 24?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 11?$0.88Jul 11, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 11?$1.90Jul 10, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 11?$1.49Jul 10, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 11?$0.09Jul 10, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 11?$0.15Jul 10, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 11?$1.00Jul 10, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 11?$1.01Jul 10, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 11?$1.02Jul 10, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?$0.42Jul 10, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 11?$0.34Jul 10, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 10?$5.74Jul 10, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.00Jul 10, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.00Jul 10, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.00Jul 10, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.01Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.01Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.01Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.01Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.01Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.01Jul 10, 21:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 131 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
131 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 20:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 131 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.