Measly-Hovel
0x094ba9f3d4156b11e61e62562b3bd994e364517e
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$144.50
Total PnL
$-755.00
Realised
$-16.31
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of July 13 2026?
122 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$122.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
13 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.01
$0.01
- ARGENTINA
Spread: Spain (-1.5)
9 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$9.38
$1.88
- NO
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on May 13?
764 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-672.00
- COLORADO ROCKIES
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
11 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- VIRTANEN
Dubai Tennis Championships: Otto Virtanen vs Tallon Griekspoor
11 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
- CLIPPERS
Clippers vs. Rockets
10 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- KAMILLA RAKHIMOVA
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DEVILS
Devils vs. Hurricanes
8 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- BULLS
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls
8 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of July 13 2026?$122.00Jul 17, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Spain (-1.5)$7.58Jul 17, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?$130.13Jul 17, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?$130.01Jun 26, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$11.47Jun 26, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 1?$13.36Jun 26, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$105.11Jun 26, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$105.01May 31, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies$5.08May 31, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$11.46May 31, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 1?$13.33May 31, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$134.27May 29, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$134.00May 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$13.00May 28, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?$147.15May 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?$147.01May 27, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova$1.03May 27, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$148.15May 27, 07:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$148.01May 26, 07:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $99.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 07:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 08:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.