0x0952819229fb73bd3460726909e2f285c054429a
0x0952819229fb73bd3460726909e2f285c054429a
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$176.18
Total PnL
$-14.69
Realised
$2.73
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13?
46 shares @ 19.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$45.92
$37.08
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 13?
19 shares @ 25.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$18.89
$14.11
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?
14 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$13.70
$6.85
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
7 shares @ 66.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.86
$1.17
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10?
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$5.50
$2.75
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
6 shares @ 74.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.02
$0.52
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$5.00
$0.20
- YES
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
7 shares @ 67.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.90
$0.14
- YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
6 shares @ 73.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.80
$0.36
- NO
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.71
$-0.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?$0.08Jul 13, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$5.38Jul 13, 18:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 11?$0.11Jul 13, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?$0.08Jul 13, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$3.48Jul 13, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMFight to Go the Distance?$6.08Jul 12, 14:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?$6.07Jul 12, 13:55 UTC
- REDEEMNorway leading at halftime?$6.08Jul 12, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$6.58Jul 12, 13:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$2.59Jul 12, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.63Jul 11, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?$0.52Jul 11, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$5.34Jul 10, 19:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or higher on July 10?$0.11Jul 10, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$4.85Jul 10, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$4.90Jul 10, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 10?$0.08Jul 10, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.64Jul 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$4.49Jul 10, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 11?$6.64Jul 10, 15:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $4.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 04:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 22:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.