Well-Lit-Anise
0x09b4c4173607390b4a499d91b43b713987d3e56d
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.5K
Total PnL
$-10.3K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
42%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 29?
925 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$920.65
$10.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?
735 shares @ 93.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$680.15
$-7.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 28?
636 shares @ 94.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$635.86
$32.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 29?
659 shares @ 80.7¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$530.83
$-1.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?
1261 shares @ 26.1¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$491.60
$162.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 30?
546 shares @ 77.6¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$445.23
$21.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on July 30?
441 shares @ 89.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$408.12
$11.80
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 29?
407 shares @ 77.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$406.80
$92.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 29?
470 shares @ 71.3¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$314.59
$-20.08
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 30?
504 shares @ 35.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$259.59
$83.26
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?$220.92Jul 29, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?$261.49Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$8.48Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 28?$260.71Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$7.83Jul 28, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?$3.62Jul 28, 23:04 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 29?$116.88Jul 28, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on July 29?$1.21Jul 28, 23:01 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$98.00Jul 28, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$12.99Jul 28, 23:00 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$28.35Jul 28, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$182.17Jul 28, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 29?$87.05Jul 28, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$7.11Jul 28, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$14.00Jul 28, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$119.02Jul 28, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 28?$9.73Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 28?$96.00Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 28?$190.27Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 28?$12.56Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $105.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.