Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.1K

Realised

$-821.98

Win rate

169 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
969 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-260.09
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
750 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
403 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-8.75
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
375 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.75
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
294 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-87.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
278 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-12.51
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
263 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-9.66
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
249 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$21.94Jul 15, 14:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$17.12Jul 15, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$8.04Jul 15, 14:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$37.19Jul 15, 14:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$2.09Jul 15, 14:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$8.13Jul 15, 14:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$2.12Jul 15, 14:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$8.08Jul 15, 14:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$2.14Jul 15, 14:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$2.13Jul 15, 14:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$8.02Jul 15, 14:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$2.08Jul 15, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$2.08Jul 15, 14:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$8.05Jul 15, 14:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$2.14Jul 15, 14:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$8.13Jul 15, 14:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$2.07Jul 15, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$8.26Jul 15, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$8.16Jul 15, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$2.10Jul 15, 14:16 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 169 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

169 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $4.78
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 2, 17:31 UTC
Last active: Jul 15, 14:48 UTC
Win rate sample: 169 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:26:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data