Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.6K

Realised

$-833.20

Win rate

68 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
969 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-9.69
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
750 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
403 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-8.75
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
375 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.75
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
294 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-23.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
278 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-12.51
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
263 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-9.66
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
96 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-9.58

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$6.21Jun 12, 11:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$6.21Jun 12, 11:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$11.54Jun 12, 11:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$6.21Jun 12, 11:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$6.20Jun 12, 11:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$6.21Jun 12, 11:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$7.14Jun 3, 03:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$7.14Jun 3, 03:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$4.99Jun 3, 02:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$4.89Jun 3, 02:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$7.14Jun 3, 02:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.87Jun 3, 02:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$1.79Jun 3, 02:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$2.33Jun 3, 02:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$4.58Jun 3, 02:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$5.00Jun 3, 02:46 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$13.21Jun 3, 02:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$0.47Jun 3, 02:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$4.53Jun 3, 02:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$5.00Jun 3, 02:36 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 68 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

68 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry59 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $4.62
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 2, 16:39 UTC
Last active: Jun 12, 11:53 UTC
Win rate sample: 68 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:35:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data