Distant-Sunroom
0x09cead452a67de28b20d5588e4d52395081293e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.21
Realised
$-4.95
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Alaska Presidential Election?
80 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.24
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Washington Governor Election?
57 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.17
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win New Hampshire Presidential Election?
53 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will Andy Beshear be D-nom for VP on Election Day?
43 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Mississippi Presidential Election?
33 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or?
29 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2024$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
27 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win New York US Senate Election?
25 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.07
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Texas Presidential Election?
24 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.07
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?
24 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Biden finish his term?$9.84Jan 8, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden finish his term?$9.86Jan 8, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Biden finish his term?$9.84Jan 8, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden finish his term?$9.86Jan 8, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump be inaugurated?$4.30Dec 12, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be inaugurated?$4.31Dec 12, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player?$1.35Dec 12, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player?$1.36Dec 12, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?$3.65Dec 12, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?$3.66Dec 12, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?$1.83Dec 12, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?$1.84Dec 12, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.10Nov 27, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.20Nov 27, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.13Nov 27, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.26Nov 27, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.15Nov 27, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.30Nov 27, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.14Nov 27, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player win the Heisman Trophy?$0.27Nov 27, 08:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 15, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 8, 07:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.