Complicated-Exception
0x09d74d65545fe1f6fe601f6a8c2f26a3d5e41b55
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$42.50
Total PnL
$-510.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
600 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
100 shares @ 6.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.50
$3.50
- NO
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
8000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.98
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
2604 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-81.36
- YES
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?
2151 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-32.50
- YES
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?
1081 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-82.49
- YES
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?
800 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-177.99
- YES
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
698 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-12.65
- YES
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?
329 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-29.47
- YES
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?
180 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-43.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?$0.00Apr 30, 23:08 UTC
- REDEEMFact Check: Maduro capture staged?$0.00Apr 30, 23:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?$0.00Apr 30, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?$2.30Mar 1, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?$12.00Mar 1, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$11.62Mar 1, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$6.40Jan 12, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$6.00Jan 11, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$4.67Jan 11, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$0.11Jan 11, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$0.22Jan 11, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$5.00Jan 10, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$5.86Jan 10, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$6.14Jan 10, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$4.78Jan 10, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 15?$0.22Jan 10, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 9?$3.00Jan 10, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 9?$4.96Jan 10, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 9?$10.45Jan 6, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by January 9?$0.05Jan 6, 10:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $16.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 3, 10:21 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 23:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.