Hidden-Likelihood
0x09ea2e18c2da9ef8ab09d06d5907db7a092915c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$36.03
Total PnL
$-4.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
11 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
11 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$10.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
11 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$10.92
$-0.08
- NO
Will Tesla reach $458 in April?
2 shares @ 90.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$2.22
$0.22
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Rutte say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Rutte say "Drone" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla reach $458 in April?$2.00Apr 19, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?$503.47Apr 19, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.00Apr 19, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?$505.00Apr 15, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?$11.00Apr 15, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?$11.00Apr 15, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$11.00Apr 15, 17:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesus Christ return in 2025?$10.27Apr 15, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?$1.00Oct 10, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31?$1.00Oct 10, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?$5.26Oct 10, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return in 2025?$10.00Jun 23, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?$1.00Jun 23, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rutte say "Drone" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?$1.00Jun 23, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?$1.00Jun 23, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rutte say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?$1.00Jun 23, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum all time high by January 31?$54.43Feb 24, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum all time high by January 31?$54.27Jan 27, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?$2.50Jan 27, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?$5.00Jan 26, 17:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $56.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 16, 18:01 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 19, 11:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".