Serene-Melatonin
0x0a3c8e89187de504a10f8893d3582f40d8f78dad
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-550.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
6097 shares @ 57.4¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$188.67
- YES
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
638 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$637.70
$248.71
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
581 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$581.40
$81.40
- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
141 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$140.84
$40.85
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
1121 shares @ 45.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-509.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
1034 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
1000 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
784 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
2 shares @ 45.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.35Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.36Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.38Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.