Wallet digest

Activity score

73/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$2.0K

Total PnL

$163.66

Realised

$5.26

Win rate

33%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 44

YES
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 4?
895 shares @ 11.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026
$895.49
$797.21
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 19?
239 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026
$238.60
$59.66
YES
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 28?
236 shares @ 76.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$235.76
$56.31
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 18?
183 shares @ 68.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026
$183.11
$57.58
YES
Canada recession before 2027?
125 shares @ 42.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$124.58
$71.11
NO
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
125 shares @ 84.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$120.89
$15.62
YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 28?
89 shares @ 73.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$89.10
$23.72
NO
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
120 shares @ 31.1¢·now 33.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$39.72
$2.43
YES
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
48 shares @ 82.8¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$37.44
$-2.32
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?
32 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026
$32.40
$16.85

Recent activity

YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

19/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

33% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity30 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry23 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk51 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:24:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data