0x0a6de05b5320ec7b3e500af588686032f3e987e0
0x0a6de05b5320ec7b3e500af588686032f3e987e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$9.54
Total PnL
$-84.82
Realised
$-4.03
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
44 shares @ 17.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.49
$-1.98
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?
194 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$-4.36
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?
239 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.08
$-4.45
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
149 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$-4.49
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
46 shares @ 12.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.76
$-4.77
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
7360 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
5260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.25
- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
4197 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-12.59
- YES
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
336 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.37
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
202 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$13.60Jul 21, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?$5.70Jul 8, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?$5.70Jul 8, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?$5.70Jul 8, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?$5.70Jul 8, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$7.94Jul 8, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$5.68Jul 5, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.69Jul 5, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$7.95Jul 5, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?$5.68Jul 5, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$4.55Jul 5, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$5.71Jul 5, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$2.27Jul 5, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$7.99Jul 5, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.68Jul 5, 16:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $6.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 16:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 19:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.