Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-15.7K

Realised

$-7.5K

Win rate

175 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
484 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026
$0.00
$-40.33
YES
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-09?
413 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-60.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
287 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-77.99
YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27?
270 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
262 shares @ 80.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-210.11
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
252 shares @ 47.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-119.18
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
209 shares @ 63.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-132.14
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
190 shares @ 22.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026
$0.00
$-42.36
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
171 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-39.22
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
168 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026
$0.00
$-24.22

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$10.24May 18, 13:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$10.55May 18, 13:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$10.55May 18, 13:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$10.35May 18, 13:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$19.99May 18, 13:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$10.55May 18, 13:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$9.95May 18, 13:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$60.00May 18, 13:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$6.71May 18, 13:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.08May 18, 13:09 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$40.00May 18, 13:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$2.64May 18, 13:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$10.35May 18, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$10.75May 18, 13:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$40.00May 18, 12:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$10.75May 18, 12:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$40.00May 18, 12:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$11.42May 18, 12:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$10.55May 18, 12:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$10.35May 18, 12:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 175 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

175 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry96 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $10.53
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 18, 12:00 UTC
Last active: May 18, 13:30 UTC
Win rate sample: 175 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:50:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data