0x0a8eee5cb1f039540abbbecc03571146048c05a4
0x0a8eee5cb1f039540abbbecc03571146048c05a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$490.37
Total PnL
$63.81
Realised
$154.70
Win rate
65%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
218 shares @ 6.4¢·now 21.4¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$46.69
$32.83
- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
62 shares @ 51.1¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$30.82
$-0.66
- YES
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
61 shares @ 44.3¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.19
$-6.06
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
44 shares @ 52.7¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.07
$-2.29
- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
125 shares @ 10.1¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.01
$2.38
- YES
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
16 shares @ 91.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$13.07
$-1.35
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 73.7¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.88
$-0.17
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
10 shares @ 98.4¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$9.87
$0.03
- YES
Haiti elections delayed again?
15 shares @ 38.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$9.20
$3.61
- NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 66.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.73
$-0.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?$4.01Jun 18, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$0.02Jun 18, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? $0.20Jun 18, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? $0.20Jun 18, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? $0.41Jun 18, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?$4.00Jun 18, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$10.67Jun 18, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.06Jun 18, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?$2.61Jun 18, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$0.74Jun 18, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.86Jun 18, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$2.67Jun 18, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$0.48Jun 18, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?$3.91Jun 18, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?$3.07Jun 18, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?$0.70Jun 18, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$2.61Jun 18, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$1.42Jun 18, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$1.57Jun 18, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.14Jun 18, 08:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 06:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 12:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.